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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd