Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.