A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
