Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Decline Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The average count of everyday homicides each month in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh government data. But, security specialists have advised that murder data may not signal improved countrywide security.

Marked Decline in Daily Averages

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the director of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we have seen during these months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the least number of murders were registered for any November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Violent cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's highly militarised campaigns to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over 4x higher than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has attributed her national security plan for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central pillars of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation work.
• Enhanced cooperation between government agencies.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security experts urged caution that relying on homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true given the rise in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be very good news if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and think: ‘Alright, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical period the previous year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not useful for assessing the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the desire to properly identify and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was also concerning because it might mask periods when there were particularly spiking levels of murders.

“Employing the daily mean renders surges of violence invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to official data. More than 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these actions, Mexico continues to be plagued by severe bloodshed, with several regions in the throes of cartel-driven violence. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to voice their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to build a narrative of security. Politically it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas remarked.